The Great Reshuffle Evolves: Coastal Cities Face New Exodus as Affordability Drives Regional Shifts
Six years following the pandemic's reshaping of the American demographic landscape, the exodus from the nation's major coastal cities has not only persisted but has also undergone a significant transformation. A January 2026 report by the Bank of America Institute reveals a continuing stream of Americans leaving New York City and Los Angeles, now accompanied by a notable outflow from Miami, a former pandemic-era boomtown.
Data from the fourth quarter of 2025 indicates that Miami and Los Angeles experienced the largest population losses in absolute terms among major U.S. cities, also registering the steepest year-over-year declines. While the early 2020s witnessed Florida serving as a primary destination for remote workers, the tide is turning for its principal metropolitan center. Miami recorded the most significant percentage drop in population among major metropolitan areas tracked by the bank.
Miami’s outgoing mayor, Francis Suarez, expressed concern in October regarding the likely election of Zohran Mamdani in New York City, while also acknowledging "definite[ly] a gentrification happening" within his city. Two months later, affordability concerns played a pivotal role in Miami electing its first Democratic mayor in nearly three decades, Eileen Higgins. Miami currently holds the top position on UBS Global Wealth Management’s “bubble risk index,” with Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York as the only other American cities on the ranking. Notably, Miami surpassed New York as the city with the most million-dollar listings at the end of the year, with 10,591 listings priced at $1 million and above, compared to NYC’s 10,176, according to Realtor.com® luxury housing reports.
Austin, Denver, and Philadelphia led the list of cities experiencing the largest influx of new residents, demonstrating that the affordability crisis gripping the U.S. is impacting even the Sun Belt. The institute further noted that “the Midwest is still having a moment,” with Indianapolis and Columbus leading in terms of absolute population growth.
The primary catalyst for this shift appears to be the same force that initially spurred departures in 2020: the pursuit of value. The report highlights that “Affordability and climate remain the two biggest magnets—and the two biggest push factors.” While Miami continues to attract wealthy transplants from New York and Boston, these inflows are no longer sufficient to offset the mass departure of existing residents. As the authors state, Miami’s migration tells a striking story of population loss despite continued strong inflows from major cities.
Nearly 70% of those leaving Miami in 2025 relocated to other parts of the South, favoring more affordable nearby markets like Orlando, Tampa, and Atlanta. This data suggests that former Miami residents are seeking locations that are “somewhat close to home” but less financially burdensome.
On the West Coast, the trend remains consistent with patterns established earlier in the decade. Los Angeles experienced a net population decline of 0.8% year over year, as residents dispersed to more affordable Western hubs. The report notes that “Los Angeles’ migration map shows a city in motion—and not in its favor.” While high costs are the primary driver, environmental concerns, particularly wildfire risk, are also prompting Angelenos to leave. However, their destinations are often within California, such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Seattle, indicating a desire for a version of West Coast life that is more financially manageable.
New York City recorded the second-largest absolute outflow of people in 2025. While the city remains a global hub, nearly 45% of outbound New Yorkers are heading south. Interestingly, Philadelphia has emerged as a significant beneficiary of New York’s population churn. More than one in four new residents in Philadelphia hailed from NYC, as movers sought a lower cost of living within a short train ride of their former home. The authors note that “Philadelphia tells an interesting story,” boasting the third-largest inflow for the fourth quarter of 2025, with more than one in four new residents saying “farewell to all that” and leaving New York. The City of Brotherly Love is also drawing in residents from across the Northeast, demonstrating its continued function as a “regional magnet for affordability-minded movers while remaining a relatively short drive from neighboring big cities.” At the same time, nearly a third of inbound migrants were from the South, versus 40% of Philadelphians moving farther south in search of warmer climates and lower costs.
The broader takeaway from the 2026 data is that the “Great Reshuffle” has slowed and become more localized. The total number of Americans moving has more than halved since 2021. The report concludes that “The big story isn’t a national reshuffle—it’s people trading one nearby city for another that fits their budget and lifestyle a little better,” suggesting a shift away from large-scale regional migrations.
Even popular growth engines like Austin and Denver are showing signs of this maturation. While Austin continues to grow, attracting talent from across the country, it is also seeing outflows to smaller cities in the South, suggesting it is no longer immune to the affordability concerns plaguing the coasts.
Six years post-pandemic, the data indicates that Americans are no longer abandoning entire regions. Instead, they are “reshaping their lives within them,” seeking value without sacrificing familiarity, but the major coastal hubs are more likely to be abandoned than embraced.
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